The NBER says: Recession since Dec. 2007

Das NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee hat festgestellt dass die USA seit Dezember 2007 in einer Rezession ist (link). Für einige eine überraschung. Für mich eher nicht. Vermute, dass das Verdikt vom CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee auch nicht lange auf sich lassen warten wird. Schade dass es kein wirklich offizielles Dating für Österreich gibt.

Jeff Frankel darüber warum das Dating so lange gedauert hat:

Everyone in the real world has known that the economy has been in a recession for some time. In past cycles, media reports have sometimes taken the line “Ivy Tower Eggheads Finally Figure Out What Everybody Else Has Known All Along.” The implicit critique is that the committee takes too long after the event – typically almost a year — to make its declaration. One short answer is that our job is to be definitive, authoritative, but not fast. We don’t want to have to revise our dating of the peaks and troughs later, in part because it would sow confusion among those who rely on them (from econometric researchers to political speechwriters). GDP and other official statistics are often revised after the fact, for example. We leave it to others –pundits, forecasters, consulting companies, financial newsletters, and so on – to try to get there first. We deliberately get there last.

Der Unterschied zwischen schnell schiessen und sicher wissen ist damit auf den Punkt gebracht. Und aufs schnell schiessen zu verzichten, das kann sich eigentlich nur die Wissenschaft leisten.